AI-Powered Mapping of Climate-Water-Health Nexus to Identify Disease Hotspots in Central Liberia: A Gender-Inclusive Model for Climate-Sensitive Disease Prediction and Adaptation (C-WHAI)

The Climate-Water-Health Artificial Intelligence (C-WHAI) project is an interdisciplinary research initiative designed to strengthen Liberia's capacity to understand, predict, and respond to climate-sensitive diseases through the integration of climate, water, health, and socio-economic data. Focusi…See More

Objectives

Main objective: To develop a gender-inclusive AI-powered mapping framework that integrates climate, water, and health data for predicting disease hotspots under climate change in central Liberia. Specific Research Objectives: i. Climate-Water-Health Nexus Mapping: To map the spatial and temporal relationships between climate factors (e.g., rainfall variability, temperature extremes) and disease incidence in the four target counties. ii. Hotspot Prediction: To predict the distribution of climate-sensitive disease risk/hotspots with climatic, epidemiological, and local datasets using geospatial technology and machine learning techniques. iii. Vulnerability and Gender Inclusion: To identify the most vulnerable groups in these hot spots, and in what ways gender, age, disability status, and socio-economic factors influence vulnerability to climate-related disease risks. iv. Stakeholder Engagement and Adaptation Planning: To develop and recommend adaptation and early warning measures based on the identified hotspots and risk factors, targeting disease prevention and adaptation strategies.

Deliverables

Deliverables for Obj 1: Baseline climate and health maps, correlation matrices, and a narrative report on observed climate–disease patterns in each county. Deliverables for Obj 2: Trained AI model (with documented code), validation report (with accuracy statistics), maps of predicted high-risk areas by season, and a brief “user guide” on how to interpret model outputs for early warning. Deliverables for Obj. 3: Dataset of survey responses (with gender disaggregation), summary of key informants and FGD insights, a report section detailing the human dimension of the climate-water-health nexus (who is affected and how), and preliminary recommendations coming directly from community voices. Deliverables for Obj. 4: Policy brief, a community brief document, workshop materials (slides, handouts), an impact pathway diagram, and evidence that findings have been communicated to key decision-makers (e.g., meeting minutes or letters of support from partners). Also, signed conflict of interest forms for all investigators as required.

National Development Plan Alignment

The proposed project strongly aligns with Liberia's ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID) 2025-2029 by advancing national priorities related to public health, climate resilience, digital innovation, inclusive development, and evidence-based governance. Through an integrated examination of the climate-water-health nexus, the project will generate practical knowledge and decision-support tools that can help government institutions better anticipate, prevent, and respond to climate-sensitive health risks affecting communities across Liberia. The first objective will produce baseline climate and health maps, correlation analyses, and county-level assessments of climate-disease relationships. These outputs will provide critical evidence on how climate variability and environmental conditions influence the occurrence and distribution of diseases such as malaria, cholera, diarrheal illnesses, and other climate-sensitive health conditions. By establishing a robust evidence base, the project supports the ARREST Agenda's emphasis on improving public health outcomes, strengthening climate resilience, and promoting data-driven planning at both national and county levels. Building on this foundation, the second objective will develop and validate an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based predictive model capable of identifying seasonal disease risks and forecasting potential outbreak hotspots. The resulting risk maps, validation reports, and user guidance materials will strengthen Liberia's capacity for early warning and preparedness. This directly contributes to the government's commitment to leveraging innovation and digital technologies to improve service delivery, strengthen disaster risk management, and enhance the efficiency of health surveillance systems. By enabling proactive rather than reactive interventions, the project supports more effective allocation of resources and improved protection of vulnerable populations. Recognizing that climate and health challenges are experienced differently across communities, the third objective will generate gender-disaggregated survey data, community perspectives, and qualitative insights from key informants and focus group discussions. These findings will reveal the human dimensions of climate-related health risks, including who is most affected, how impacts are experienced, and what coping strategies communities employ. The emphasis on community voices and gender-responsive analysis aligns with the ARREST Agenda's commitment to inclusive development, social equity, and citizen participation. The resulting recommendations will reflect local realities and priorities, increasing the likelihood that future interventions are both effective and sustainable. The fourth objective focuses on translating scientific evidence into policy and practice through the development of policy briefs, community briefs, stakeholder workshops, and impact pathway analyses. These activities will facilitate knowledge sharing among government ministries, development partners, local authorities, and affected communities. By ensuring that research findings are communicated effectively to decision-makers and incorporated into planning processes, the project contributes to stronger governance, accountability, and evidence-informed policymaking. The inclusion of documented stakeholder engagement and ethical compliance measures further supports the principles of transparency and institutional integrity emphasized within the ARREST Agenda. Collectively, the project will strengthen Liberia's ability to address emerging climate and health challenges through an integrated approach that combines scientific research, technological innovation, community engagement, and policy action. By generating actionable evidence, developing predictive tools, amplifying community perspectives, and supporting informed decision-making, the project directly contributes to the ARREST Agenda's vision of building a healthier, more resilient, technologically enabled, and inclusive Liberia.